Barclays analysts on Tuesday slashed their peak sales forecasts for Novo Nordisk’s next-generation obesity drug CagriSema to just $2 billion from $12 billion following disappointing trial results for the drug a day earlier.
The cut in the bank’s forecast was a clear sign of the extent of the blow that the new data dealt to the Danish drugmaker’s efforts to regain its market leadership against U.S. rival Eli Lilly in a rapidly evolving obesity market.
Novo unveiled late-stage trial data for CagriSema on Monday that not only showed it underperforming Lilly’s rival Zepbound, which launched in late 2023, but appeared to show weight loss with Zepbound was better than even some of Lilly’s own data had shown.
Novo’s shares tanked 16% on the news, wiping away the remaining gains brought by its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy, while Lilly jumped 5%.
Novo plans to launch next year after expected approval by the U.S. FDA by the end of this year, but Barclays, Jefferies and analysts at several other banks said the data led them to doubt the drug’s commercial potential.
